In the second quarter of 2024, the U.S. economy remained strong, much better than most economists were expecting when making forecasts a year ago. We have continued to be surprised by the strength of consumer spending and magnitude of corporate cash flowing into Artificial Intelligence related investments.
The first three months of 2024 were good for US stocks, in particular. The S&P 500 index of large US companies advanced 10.6%, though it has been volatile and has given back some of those gains in the weeks following the end of the first quarter.
What a year! In 2022, the combination of high inflation and the Fed dramatically raising interest rates led to deeply negative returns for both stocks and bonds. Going into 2023, an unprecedented number of statistics and virtually every market strategist and economist were all predicting recession.
The S&P 500 reached a 2023 high at the end of July before selling off 7.5% through August and September to finish the quarter down 3.3%. Year-to-date the index remains up a solid 13%. Smaller-cap stocks (Russell 2000) also had momentum early in the quarter, but changed course and ended the quarter down 5.1%, though are still positive 2.5% year-to-date.
Market Recap
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was the dominant story during the last quarter. Several other relatively small banks showed signs of distress, which shook markets. The Federal Reserve (Fed) stepped up and injected significant amounts of cash into the banking system to help counter any “run on the bank” contagion. It was a successful maneuver.
The year 2022 was certainly a year to forget in investment markets. Throughout the course of the year, stock markets experienced steep declines, as well as several powerful “buy the dip” rallies. This behavior is consistent with past corrections from bubble level valuations. The S&P 500 index, representing large US companies, ended the year with a powerful rall
When I was in business school, we learned about the fundamentals of accounting to be able to measure the health of a company and to determine its current value. In more advanced courses, we learned how to make financial projections and we studied ways to optimize our decision-making based on these estimates. With the advent of powerful computers, and now even artificial intelligence
You have no doubt heard of the sixteenth century prognosticator known as Nostradamus. His long record of exceptionally vague predictions has taken on a life of its own and he has been credited with predicting centuries worth of historical events. Often, his words can be twisted into a pretzel to make some conspiracy theory seem credible. A modern fol
As you might imagine, it has been a pretty intense five months as an investment advisor representative. Oddly enough, I’m feeling old these days, despite only being forty-four, as I remember the many times I’ve experienced bear markets in my career. At each of the past bear markets, I recall stories from other veteran advisors about how this time was unprecedented in the
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