April 7, 2025 – Incremental and Slow
Submitted by Alsworth Capital Management, LLC on April 7th, 2025
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We personally author periodic letters and presentations to our clients to provide an update on how we are managing their portfolios, our view on economic conditions, and important updates on financial planning topics. We post some of that content to this blog for public viewing. We hope you find the content useful.
The S&P 500 Index, consisting of the largest public companies in the US, ended the year up 25%. This was the second year in a row with gains over 20%. The returns were led by large technology companies, particularly tho What is there not to like about last quarter? The stock market reached new highs with the S&P 500 gaining 5.9% in the third quarter, pushing its year-to-date return to 22.1%. Developed international stocks In the second quarter of 2024, the U.S. economy remained strong, much better than most economists were expecting when making forecasts a year ago. We have continued to be surprised by the strength of consumer spending and magnitude of corporate cash flowing into Artificial Intelligence related investments. The first three months of 2024 were good for US stocks, in particular. The S&P 500 index of large US companies advanced 10.6%, though it has been volatile and has given back some of those gains in the weeks following the end of the first quarter. What a year! In 2022, the combination of high inflation and the Fed dramatically raising interest rates led to deeply negative returns for both stocks and bonds. Going into 2023, an unprecedented number of statistics and virtually every market strategist and economist were all predicting recession. The S&P 500 reached a 2023 high at the end of July before selling off 7.5% through August and September to finish the quarter down 3.3%. Year-to-date the index remains up a solid 13%. Smaller-cap stocks (Russell 2000) also had momentum early in the quarter, but changed course and ended the quarter down 5.1%, though are still positive 2.5% year-to-date. Market Recap The failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was the dominant story during the last quarter. Several other relatively small banks showed signs of distress, which shook markets. The Federal Reserve (Fed) stepped up and injected significant amounts of cash into the banking system to help counter any “run on the bank” contagion. It was a successful maneuver.
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Third Quarter 2024 – Don’t Bet on the Unsure Thing
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Second Quarter 2024 - The Market Craves Certainty
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First Quarter 2024 – Don’t Put All Your Eggs In the Shiny Basket
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Fourth Quarter 2023 – The Inflation Witch is Dead
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Third Quarter 2023 – The Magnificent Seven
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Second Quarter 2023 – Artificial Intelligence Dot Com
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First Quarter 2023 – Recession Still Likely
Submitted by Alsworth Capital Management, LLC on May 15th, 2023
